Interviewing a Farmer on the Latest about Food Shortages & Inflation

Supply chain issues, empty shelves, and food shortages/disruptions have been trending topics for a while now but something is different now. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is impacting food supply around the world. There’s been a lot of questions lately so we figured we’d go straight to the farmer to get his input.

Check out part one of this article first. Food Shortages And More Inflation? Why is it happening?

We interviewed a farmer to find out what they’re seeing and expecting. This is a loose paraphrase of the conversation that followed.

Fertilizer shortage and food prices

We’ve been hearing a lot about fertilizer. What can you tell me about the price you’re paying for fertilizer?
Nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium are the big three crop fertilization. The prices have been going up. For example, nitrogen has more than doubled. It was $0.46 a pound and has gone up to $1.05 a pound now. The other fertilizers are increasing as well. Our supplier warned the prices could go up another 3 to 4 times this summer.

I’ve read online that fertilizer is responsible for a 40-60% increase in crop yield. Is that true?
It depends, but yes, that sounds close.

Have you considered cutting back the amount of fertilizer you’re using?
We talked about cutting back the amount of nitrogen but decided to keep using the same amount. We are going to focus more on efficacy by tailoring the application.

Potassium and phosphorus levels can build up in the soil, giving us some wiggle room. Nitrogen, on the other hand, has to be replenished every year.

Manure makes good fertilizer, can’t you just use that instead?
We don’t have enough to use on all of our crops. Chicken and turkey manure has already been sold out for this growing season.

Food prices

Prices have nearly doubled for some food, so farmers must be doing really well or even getting rich now, right?
No. Cost increases are affecting us as well.

What is driving up food prices then?
What really drives up the prices you see at the grocery store is 5-dollar diesel. Transportation and packaging are the biggest reasons for price increases. Fifteen-dollar minimum wages won’t make things cheaper at the supermarket either.

Our equipment prices are affected just like everyone else’s. Computer chip shortages have resulted in fewer new tractors, and the price of rental equipment and used equipment has risen a lot.

Will your farm make about the same profit margin?
The margins will still be pretty similar. It’s just a lot more money, and everything will have to go perfectly.
2022 is the biggest dice roll for any crop I can remember.

How much have wheat prices increased?
Wheat was $4 a bushel, now it’s $10 a bushel.

Does the United States have an emergency stockpile of corn or wheat like we have for oil?
Not that I know of. Farmers are still very independent.

Are you adjusting the crops you are planting?
I’m not, but I’ve heard some farmers will plant more wheat. Instead of planting a full season of beans, they’ll plant wheat and then plant beans after the wheat is harvested. The beans will have a shorter growing season and produce less, but wheat is in high demand now.

Thank you, Kyle, for the interview.
You can follow him on Facebook at Grumke Farms.

Key Takeaways

We can glean a few key takeaways between the first article and our conversation with a farmer.

Prices will go up

Inflation continues to increase around the world. Increasing fuel prices and fertilizer prices will continue to push the price of food items up higher. The USDA is expecting a 3-7% increase this year. Then again, we’ve seen how well official predictions have been lately…

Some products, like wheat and sunflowers, will be harder to find and more expensive

The United States is less reliant on Ukraine and Russia for its imports than other nations. Some products may still be difficult to find or much more expensive. Sunflowers and wheat are both largely produced in Ukraine and Russia.

Geographical regions may be hit harder

The European region relies heavily on Ukraine. Ukraine is known as the breadbasket of Europe. Ukraine’s importance will affect their nearby neighbors more than others.

Meat prices may rise later this year

Farmers have reduced cattle feed crops to produce more profitable crops like wheat. Fewer crops for cattle grown now could cause higher meat prices later this year.

The most vulnerable can be the most affected

As is often the case in times of war and crisis, the people needing the most help often suffer the most. Increasing prices lead to even worse food insecurity for poorer countries, though some resiliency may be provided by their lack of dependence on wheat.

Donating to international food programs or your local food bank can be a huge blessing to others.

There is still a lot of unknown

Russia can stop supplying oil to anyone they choose to, at any moment.

More countries may stop exporting food because they fear shortages. This could make the impact in the United States much more significant.

Putin is behaving irrationally and continues to make veiled nuclear threats.
See How to shelter in place during a nuclear event

The world will adapt

We’ve been learning a lot about how to adapt since 2020. Our supply chains are still unstable, but we continue to make the best of what we have. Countries may reduce exports, products may substitute their ingredients, and new innovative solutions may be found for shortages.

Now is a good time to have a reserve of food

When a disaster or crisis strikes, your survival may come down to what you have prepared. It’s recommended to have a two-week supply of food and water. Having the basics for even a short-term crisis can give you extra time to think about rational solutions to problems.

Before you go check out these 21 WWII food shortage propaganda posters

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Fertilizer shortage and food prices

Food prices

Key Takeaways

Prices will go up

Some products, like wheat and sunflowers, will be harder to find and more expensive

Geographical regions may be hit harder

Meat prices may rise later this year

The most vulnerable can be the most affected

There is still a lot of unknown

The world will adapt

Now is a good time to have a reserve of food

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