The Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a G3 (STRONG) Geomagnetic Storm Watch for March 31st of 2022. It sounds scary but what does that really mean? Will solar weather really affect me?
Solar weather, as the name implies, is caused by the Sun. The Sun produces more solar disruptions during different parts of the solar cycle. We are currently entering the more active part of its cycle.
What is the solar cycle?
The sun has periods where it is more active and periods where it is less active. The Sun’s solar cycle lasts approximately 11 years. The solar cycle both peaks and troughs in that 11 year period.
What activity can the Sun have? It’s already on fire, what more can it do?
Solar Flares
Solar flares are large eruptions on the surface of the Sun. They pack a massive amount of energy and travel at the speed of light, reaching the earth in only 8 minutes. They can degrade high-frequency radio communications and even cause radio blackouts. The high-energy particles can cause problems with satellites and interfere with GPS.
During extreme solar storms, flight routes may avoid polar routes to prevent communication and navigation issues.
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs)
According to NOAA CMEs are “giant blobs of plasma” that can cause geomagnetic storms if they reach the earth. The storms can cause blackouts but most are easily handled by a power grid operator.
Sunspots and Solar Wind
For more information check out the graphic or the website below. It also explains the earth’s defense against solar storms.
How does solar weather affect me?
It depends on the level of severity.
NOAA grades three space weather events. They are geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, and radio blackouts. They are rated on a scale of 1 to 5 with five being the most severe.
On the less severe side of the scale, it’s unlikely you will notice anything. As it progresses up the scales it becomes more disruptive, especially for those maintaining the electrical grid, flying in the space station, or involved in communications.
So if you’re not controlling voltages for the power grid, not currently in outer space, and you still haven’t got around to getting your ham license, what will you see?
The northern lights if you’re lucky! Solar storms can cause the northern lights to be visible much further south during high levels of activity.
Unless we reach the rarer severe or extreme events most individuals’ daily life won’t be drastically altered.
Possible Effects from Extreme Solar Radiation and Geomagnetic Storms:
- Power outages
- Permanent damage to electrical equipment
- Blackouts
- Navigation issues
- Radio outages
- Loss of satellites
Along with the grading system NASA includes the frequency of the events. The strongest storms are not very frequent. The most extreme geomagnetic storms, for example, only occur on average 4 days in 11 years. There is only a 0.1% chance we will experience an extreme geomagnetic solar storm on any given day.
Note: We have been enjoying a period of low solar activity for many years now. Solar activity is now increasing and is expected to peak in July of 2025. Much of our current technology hasn’t had to prove its reliability during solar storms for many years now.
The 1859 Carrington Event
The largest solar storm on record occurred in 1859. The northern lights were seen as far south as Hawaii and Central America. Telegraph lines across the world failed with some of them sparking, shocking their operators, and even catching on fire!
Recent real-world losses
SpaceX launched 49 Starlink satellites into orbit on 3 February 2022. Unfortunately for them, a geomagnetic storm hit the earth’s atmosphere a day later.
One of the side effects of geomagnetic storms on satellites is an increase in drag in low earth orbit. The newly launched satellites were in a temporary position that allows them to quickly deorbit and not become space debris if they don’t function properly.
The increased drag and being in a temporary orbit caused the loss of 38 of the 49 satellites.
What is this storm expected to do?
To figure that out we can check out the graph for a G 3 storm and find it is likely to affect the following.
Power systems: Voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft operations: Surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems.
Other systems: Intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.).
–www.swpc.noaa.gov
Impacts to technology from a G3 storm generally remain small
For current solar weather information see our Satellite and Space Weather Dashboard
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